Chasing a flush on the internet – Occasionally the numbers just don’t add up!
There is an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? Initial of all we must define what we mean here by "chasing a flush online."
Chasing anything in Texas hold em poker may be the practice of gambling to stay in a palm in the hope that you will generate a better hand, even though you might have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush suggests gambling which you will receive the card or card that you should total your flush hands around the turn or river. You can’t chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have two cards so the flush is not on.
So let’s say you are playing one of the massive poker sites on-line, you’ve been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s seven spades King of diamonds and one of your competitors comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
Initially of all ask yourself what variety of palm you happen to be up against. The possibilities are triples, an additional flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you are only winning towards the bluff with your Ace. To the other palm in case you hit a spade in the last two cards you might have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.
On the face of it you could possibly assume that statistically you may have about a 50-50 probability of hitting your spade, after all there’s 2 cards to come and four suits so there must be about a half opportunity, appropriate?
Wrong!
You already have 2 of the spades in your palm and there’s a different 2 showing around the table, so you know five cards and four of them are spades. That indicates you may have nine spades left available out of the 47 cards you have not seen, which is only a forty two per cent opportunity of catching your flush.
If you do wager on the turn and do not generate your flush, what do you do then? You may have probably now become pot-committed, you’ve got put so a lot into the pot that you just may as properly bet again within the river unless there is a massive raise or all-in in opposition to you, but now your odds of generating the flush have dropped dramatically to only 21 %.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious net poker syndrome? What I mean by that’s although you statistically have a forty two % opportunity of creating a flush, is that what truly happens in reality? In case you wagered the identical hands in the very same on-line poker table one hundred occasions would you get a flush forty two instances? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to arrive around lots less frequently than forty two out of one hundred occasions!
That’s just my own opinion and I am sure the poker sites would tell you a different story, but the way I see it is 42 percent will be the quite Best you’re ever going to obtain and you might effectively have a good deal less probability than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the internet is really a really risky strategy that sucks you in and over commits you, without giving you enough of a probability of pulling out the succeeding hand.